EIA Lowers Crude Oil Price Forecast, Plastic Raw Material Market Shows Mixed Trends

[Introduction] The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest report on July 7, significantly lowering its 2026 crude oil price forecast, expecting WTI crude oil average price at $76.26/barrel and Brent crude at $82/barrel. Affected by this, the plastic raw material market shows mixed trends.

1. EIA Lowers Crude Oil Price Forecast

The latest EIA report shows that the 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast has been lowered from $95/barrel to $82/barrel; WTI crude oil average price forecast lowered from $88.32/barrel to $76.26/barrel. The 2027 forecast is even more conservative, with WTI average potentially dropping to $60.76/barrel.

Analysts believe that the U.S. releasing positive signals for U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and the preliminary ceasefire agreement between Israel and Lebanon are geopolitical factors easing oil market pressure.

2. Plastic Raw Material Market on July 13

PE Market: Domestic PE market prices show mixed trends. Linear grades dropped 50 yuan/ton, high-pressure grades rose 50-100 yuan/ton, low-pressure drawn grades fluctuated 50-100 yuan/ton. Linear futures rose, some petrochemical companies continued raising ex-factory prices, but market trading sentiment was poor.

PP Market: Domestic PP spot market showed slight consolidation, ranging 50-150 yuan/ton. Futures market fluctuated, with weakening support for spot market. Upstream petrochemical ex-factory prices remained stable, providing cost support.

PVC Market: Domestic PVC market was stable, with traders quoting at yesterday's levels. Downstream inquiry and purchasing remained average, with light trading atmosphere and cautious sentiment.

3. Market Outlook

In the short term, weakening crude oil prices reduce cost support for plastic raw materials. PE market sentiment continues positive, but considering declining terminal purchasing intention after sustained price increases, short-term consolidation is expected. PP market is expected to continue operating at low levels. PVC market faces pressure with prices likely moving downward.

4. Reference Data

Data Source: SCI99 (Zhuochuang) July 13, 2026