According to the latest data from July 17, international crude oil prices have continued to rebound, with WTI crude futures at $79.85/barrel and Brent crude at $85.64/barrel. Meanwhile, China's domestic refined oil prices were officially raised at midnight on July 18, with gasoline up 300 yuan/ton and diesel up 290 yuan/ton, equivalent to an increase of approximately 0.23-0.27 yuan/liter.
This has strengthened cost support for upstream plastic raw materials. Analysts point out that crude oil, as the most upstream raw material in the plastics industry, directly affects the production costs of polyolefin products such as PE and PP. The current oil price hike will cascade through all segments of the plastics industry chain.
From the petrochemical enterprise perspective, some refineries have recently entered maintenance season, with tight supply of intermediate feedstocks such as naphtha and ethylene, further pushing up plastic production costs. Data from Longzhong Information shows that polyethylene raw material prices have risen recently, significantly compressing profits for agricultural film manufacturers.
On the demand side, agricultural film is currently in the traditional off-season, with limited order follow-through and largely flat raw material inventories. However, demand in pipe materials, injection molding and other areas remains stable, providing some market support.
Looking ahead, market participants believe that crude oil price trends will remain the core variable affecting the plastics market. In the short term, oil prices are likely to oscillate in the $70-80 range, and plastic prices may maintain a consolidating pattern. It is recommended to monitor downstream restocking pace and petrochemical plant maintenance schedules.
