[June Market Review]
In June 2026, the domestic polyethylene (PE) market exhibited typical off-season characteristics with sustained downward price pressure. Early-month crude oil volatility and linear futures opening lower prompted some PetroChina and Sinopec subsidiaries to cut ex-factory prices. Multiple bearish factors left merchants pessimistic about the market outlook, pushing prices down actively. By month-end, trading sentiment was subdued with downstream buyers adopting rigid-demand procurement.
In East China, North China, and South China, LLDPE mainstream quotes ranged 7,300–7,800 CNY/ton, LDPE at 8,200–8,800 CNY/ton, and HDPE drawing-grade at 7,600–8,200 CNY/ton, down 200–400 CNY/ton from late May.
[July Outlook]
On the supply side, PE plant maintenance losses decreased month-over-month in July, while previously launched new capacity gradually released, increasing domestic supply pressure. On the demand side, July remains in the traditional low season, high temperatures limit some downstream operating rates, and the narrowing spread between virgin and recycled PE weakens recycled material substitution advantages.
[Price Forecast]
Overall, July PE market fundamentals show mixed signals: supply increase vs. weakening cost support. SCI99 forecasts North China LLDPE mainstream prices to hold in the 7,400–7,850 CNY/ton range, with price center still facing slight downward pressure. Monitor linear futures trends and maintenance schedules.
