Daily Plastics Report (2026-08-24): Polyolefins Range-Bound Firm on Geopolitical and Cost Support

Daily Plastics Report (2026-08-24): Polyolefins Range-Bound Firm on Geopolitical and Cost Support [Today's Highlights] - Domestic polyolefin spot prices fluctuated narrowly; PE and PP overall held a range-bound, firm bias. - The geopolitical backdrop (US-Iran tensions, low transit efficiency through the Strait of Hormuz) continued to lift the risk premium across the energy-chemical complex, with firm crude oil providing cost support. - Downstream remains in the traditional consumption off-season, with weak restocking willingness, capping upside room for prices. [PE - Polyethylene] Spot: North China mainstream 8,470 CNY/t (-8 CNY/t WoW); East China 8,613 CNY/t (flat); South China 8,845 CNY/t (-68 CNY/t WoW). Supply: Last week domestic PE operating rate 75.54% (-3.15% WoW); maintenance-affected output 164,800 t (+22,400 t WoW), indicating multiple unit turnarounds and a temporary supply tightening. Demand: Overall downstream operating rate 35.15% (+0.48% WoW); agricultural film peak season not yet clearly underway, packaging film maintained rigid demand. Inventories: Producer sample inventories 466,500 t, slight build of 1,800 t WoW. Futures: On Aug 21, L2609 settled at 8,148 CNY/t, futures price rebounded. Outlook: Rising crude and stronger cost-side support improved sentiment and lifted futures; but downstream remains in off-season with weak restocking. Amid long-short tug-of-war, prices are expected to hold range-bound with a possible firm bias. [PP - Polypropylene] Spot: North China mainstream 9,148 CNY/t (-29 CNY/t WoW); East China 9,181 CNY/t (-6 CNY/t WoW); South China 9,292 CNY/t (-20 CNY/t WoW). Supply: Last week average capacity utilization 69.32% (+0.59 pp WoW); Sinopec utilization 56.68% (-2.95 pp WoW). Domestic output 722,300 t (+6,200 t WoW, -8.14% YoY). Demand: Average operating rate across 9 downstream sectors 44.70% (+0.15 pp WoW), still low overall. Inventories: Producer inventories 377,200 t (-6,700 t WoW, destocked 1.75%). Outlook: Futures rebounded on Aug 21; with fundamentals little changed, PP futures may sustain a range-bound, firm bias. [PVC - Polyvinyl Chloride] Spot: East China calcium carbide-based Type-5 ex-warehouse 4,500-4,600 CNY/t; ethylene-based 4,850-5,000 CNY/t. Analysis: PVC still has cost-side support, but supply and demand are both weak; together with trade-policy restrictions, Indian buyers' wait-and-see sentiment rose, keeping the spot market under pressure and steady-soft. PVC prices are expected to stay range-bound with little room for large moves. [Soda Ash] (related chain) Spot: Shahe heavy soda ash 983 CNY/t (flat WoW); East/North China 1,150 CNY/t, Central China 1,100 CNY/t, all flat WoW. Supply: Last week overall operating rate 78.31% (+2.16% WoW), output 745,800 t (+20,500 t WoW) as previously idled units restarted, supply edged higher. [Forward Watch] 1. Middle East geopolitics and Strait of Hormuz transit recovery. 2. Crude oil trend and polyolefin cost-support strength. 3. Pace of agricultural-film peak-season launch and restocking willingness. 4. Pace of unit maintenance restarts. Sources: Anliang Futures (10jqka), Huatai Futures, Hualong Futures, SCI99, Longzhong, as of 2026-08-24.