[Key Highlights]
On August 24, 2026, domestic polyolefin spot prices fluctuated within a narrow range, with PE and PP maintaining a range-bound, firm bias. Geopolitical tensions (US-Iran standoff, limited Strait of Hormuz transit efficiency) continued to inject risk premiums across the energy-chemical complex, with international crude oil holding firm and providing solid cost support. However, downstream demand remained in the traditional off-season, with weak restocking willingness capping upside room.
[Polyethylene (PE) Market]
Spot prices: North China 8,470 CNY/t (-8 WoW); East China 8,613 CNY/t (flat); South China 8,845 CNY/t (-68 WoW). Supply: Operating rate 75.54% (-3.15% WoW); maintenance-affected output 164,800 t (+22,400 t WoW), indicating temporary supply tightening. Demand: Downstream operating rate 35.15% (+0.48% WoW); agricultural film peak season not yet clearly underway, packaging film maintaining rigid demand. Inventories: Producer sample inventories 466,500 t, slightly building 1,800 t WoW. Futures: L2609 settled at 8,148 CNY/t on Aug 21, futures rebounded. Outlook: Rising crude oil strengthened cost-side support and boosted sentiment, but downstream remains in off-season with weak restocking; prices expected to hold range-bound with possible firm bias.
[Polypropylene (PP) Market]
Spot prices: North China 9,148 CNY/t (-29 WoW); East China 9,181 CNY/t (-6 WoW); South China 9,292 CNY/t (-20 WoW). Supply: Average capacity utilization 69.32% (+0.59 pp WoW); Sinopec utilization 56.68% (-2.95 pp WoW); domestic output 722,300 t (+6,200 t WoW, -8.14% YoY). Demand: Average operating rate across 9 downstream sectors 44.70% (+0.15 pp WoW), still low overall. Inventories: Producer inventories 377,200 t (-6,700 t WoW, destocked 1.75%). Futures rebounded on Aug 21; with fundamentals little changed, PP futures may sustain range-bound, firm bias.
[Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Market]
East China calcium carbide-based Type-5 ex-warehouse 4,500-4,600 CNY/t; ethylene-based 4,850-5,000 CNY/t. PVC still has cost-side support, but supply and demand are both weak; trade policy restrictions have raised Indian buyers' wait-and-see sentiment, keeping the spot market under pressure with steady-soft tone. Prices expected to stay range-bound with little room for large moves.
[Soda Ash]
Shahe heavy soda ash 983 CNY/t (flat WoW); East/North China 1,150 CNY/t, Central China 1,100 CNY/t, all flat WoW. Operating rate 78.31% (+2.16% WoW), output 745,800 t (+20,500 t WoW) as previously idled units restarted.
[Forward Watch]
- Middle East geopolitics and Strait of Hormuz transit recovery
- Crude oil trend and polyolefin cost-support strength
- Pace of agricultural-film peak-season launch and restocking willingness
- Pace of unit maintenance restarts
Sources: Anliang Futures (10jqka), Huatai Futures, Hualong Futures, SCI99, Longzhong. Data as of August 24, 2026.
