Lead: Sci99 weekly data reveals: 80 of 109 monitored chemical products declined (73.39%), only 19 gaining. High crude prices have paradoxically amplified cost pressures, creating "oil up, chemicals down" divergence.
I. Winners vs Losers
Top Gainers Logic
| Product | Weekly | Driver | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toluene | +5.34% | Blending demand + import reduction | Supply-side support dominates |
| Diethylene Glycol | +4.91% | Polyester chain cost support | Downstream plants at high run rates |
| Calcium Carbide | +4.35% | Supply tightening + production cuts | Environmental limits + maintenance |
Top Losers Deep Dive
| Product | Weekly | Logic | Chain Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liquid Chlorine | -28.57% | Sharp chlor-alkali order contraction | PVC cost support weakened |
| Flexible Foam PPG | -14.29% | Declining downstream utilization | Full-chain polyurethane pressure |
| Propylene Oxide | -10.00% | Cost inflation cannot be absorbed | PO-PPG-polyurethane chain broken |
II. Why Oil Rally Is Adverse for Chemicals
- Macro: Manufacturing PMI below expansion consecutively
- Proportion effect: High crude consumes procurement budgets, crowding out chemical demand
- Capacity release: H1 2026 new capacity becoming surplus
III. Implications for Plastics
- Toluene-SM-PS-EPS: Upstream cost support but downstream margins squeezed
- PVC: Lower chlorine costs but reflects demand weakness
- Polyurethane: Deep destocking cycle underway
IV. Outlook
Structurally weak but some deeply-declined products near cost lines may see technical bounces. Watch toluene chain and bottom-testing for chlorine/PO.
