I. Broad Chemical Decline: Structural Divergence
This week, 80 out of 109 chemicals declined (73.39%), only 19 rose (17.43%), 10 held steady. Gains concentrated in aromatics and calcium carbide chain; declines concentrated in chlor-alkali and polyurethane upstream, reflecting different supply-demand dynamics across chains.
Price Rankings
| Product | Change | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Toluene | +5.34% | Aromatics supply tight |
| DEG | +4.91% | Port destocking |
| Calcium carbide | +4.35% | Energy inspection cuts |
| Liquid chlorine | -28.57% | Caustic soda byproduct glut |
| Flexible foam PPG | -14.29% | Polyurethane demand weak |
| Propylene oxide | -10.00% | Supply recovery + weak demand |
Divergence Logic
- Rising products: Rigid supply contraction. Toluene supported by low aromatics reforming runs, DEG by port destocking cycle, calcium carbide by MIIT energy inspection production limits.
- Falling products: Clear oversupply. Liquid chlorine as caustic soda byproduct faces severe glut; flexible foam PPG and propylene oxide reflect seasonal demand weakness in refrigerator and auto sectors.
II. Styrene: Weak Balance of Supply Contraction and Demand Improvement
Styrene shows the most significant marginal improvement in supply-demand fundamentals. Daily average 9,375 yuan/ton, down 2.14% WoW, but fundamentals are quietly shifting. Industry operating rate fell to 69.29% (-5.70pp WoW), weekly output down 4.81%. Port inventory may see an inflection point next week as arrivals decline and exports increase. Downstream demand rose +17.62% WoW, with EPS operating rate surging 22.10pp to 53.32%.
However, non-integrated unit losses widened to -607 yuan/ton (-35.79% WoW), as benzene weakened while styrene fell further, squeezing midstream margins.
III. Outlook
Styrene short-term: oversold recovery in 9,200-9,600 yuan/ton range. Triple drivers — supply cuts, inventory inflection, demand recovery — limit downside. But weak benzene and downstream margin pressure cap rebound above 9,600. Overall chemicals remain in a weak cycle; focus on structural opportunities from supply-side energy inspection policies.
