I. Benzene Chain Gains Across the Board
SCI99 monitoring shows 26 of 42 petrochemical products rose, with phenol, WTI, and Brent topping gainers. Benzene moved higher in tandem: FOB Korea at $1,075-1,080/tonne, up $12.50/tonne; CFR China at $1,100-1,105/tonne, also up $12.50/tonne. PX futures settled at 9,460 yuan/tonne, closing at 9,532 — a sharp +216 yuan gain.
Key Benzene-Chain Price Movements
| Product | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Benzene FOB Korea | $1,075-1,080/tonne | +$12.50/tonne |
| Benzene CFR China | $1,100-1,105/tonne | +$12.50/tonne |
| PX Futures Settlement | 9,460 yuan/tonne | +216 yuan/tonne |
| Caprolactam East China | 11,900-12,000 yuan/tonne | Flat |
Value Chain Transmission Logic
- Crude-to-aromatics cost pass-through: With WTI above $108, naphtha costs climbed, lifting benzene as a primary reformate co-product. PX closely correlated with benzene received a direct cost push.
- Phenol supply-demand tightness: Phenol outsized gain reflects more than cost push — it signals genuine supply tightening. Several domestic phenol-acetone units under maintenance or reduced rates.
- Caprolactam holding at elevated levels: East China liquid CPL at 11,900-12,000 yuan/tonne was flat. As the direct feedstock for PA6 chips, current prices already relatively high.
II. Downstream Products Show Clear Divergence
Contrasting with strong benzene-chain upstream, certain downstream derivatives posted declines. Octanol, MMA, and epoxy chloropropane led losses. ECH decline reflects independent supply-demand logic: supply increases and lackluster epoxy resin demand pushed prices lower.
This internal divergence indicates the market is not following a simple "cost-push universal rally" script.
III. Outlook
Benzene has further upside potential supported by high crude and the domestic maintenance season, with CFR China likely testing $1,130-1,150/tonne. Phenol should maintain firm tone tracking benzene. ECH expected to remain weak amid ample supply. Overall, the benzene chain will maintain upstream-strong, downstream-divergent pattern near-term.
