1. PP Defies Downtrend: Maintenance Season Plus Futures Support
PP granules ranked first in gains among 42 petrochemical products. Two drivers: May-June maintenance affects ~3.8M tpa of domestic PP capacity, creating real supply contraction; PP futures rallied, boosting spot market sentiment. LLDPE film remained weak, widening the PE-PP divergence.
Polyolefin Price Changes
| Product | Price Range | Change |
|---|---|---|
| PP Granules | 7300-7500 yuan/mt | +50-75 yuan/mt |
| PP Powder | 7000-7200 yuan/mt | +0-50 yuan/mt |
| LLDPE Film | 8100-8300 yuan/mt | -0-75 yuan/mt |
| Caprolactam | 11900-12000 yuan/mt | Flat |
Strength Logic
- Supply contraction:Concentrated maintenance affects ~3.8M tpa (~12% of domestic PP capacity); tight supply persists
- Futures support:PP futures rally strengthened basis, stimulating trader restocking
- PE weakness contrast:PE maintenance less extensive, import windows partially open
2. Plastic Weaving Off-Season: Weak Demand Caps Upside
Off-season characteristics are pronounced, factory procurement willingness is weak, trading sentiment is subdued. Raw material fluctuations confined to 0-75 yuan/mt range. Holders adjust offers based on shipment pace rather than pushing prices up, meaning PP gains lack solid downstream demand support.
3. Outlook
PP maintains firm tone in 7300-7550 yuan/mt range under maintenance support. Two risks: maintenance restarts from late June increase supply pressure; off-season demand remains weak. If crude breaks below $105/bbl, PP could accelerate toward 7000 yuan/mt. LLDPE weak at 8100-8250 yuan/mt. Industrial clients should lock profits above 7400 yuan/mt.
