Lead: This week WTI crude broke below $98/bbl, down over 3% weekly as geopolitical premium from the Hormuz blockade expectation unwinds. Iran nuclear talks sent mixed signals; Trump rejected Hormuz toll framework. Plastics cost support is weakening marginally, with PVC and polyolefins under pressure.
I. Crude Oil: Premium Unwind, Down Over 3% on the Week
As of May 21 close, WTI July settled at $97.63/bbl (-0.64% daily, -3.0% weekly); Brent July at $104.53/bbl (-0.47% daily, -4.0% weekly). The pullback is primarily driven by partial unwinding of geopolitical premium.
Key Price Data
| Contract | May 21 Close | Daily | Weekly | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Jul 2026 | $97.63/bbl | -0.64% | -3.0% | +59.53% |
| Brent Crude Jul 2026 | $104.53/bbl | -0.47% | -4.0% | +62.22% |
II. Plastics Cost Side: Marginal Weakness, But Lagged
The crude pullback affects plastics costs with a 1-2 week lag. Current domestic PVC/polyolefin spot prices are declining less than futures, meaning cost-floor support is weakening but not yet fully gone.
III. Outlook
Crude: WTI to range $95-105/bbl near-term. If interim deal reached, WTI may quickly fall to $90-95. Mid-term (Q2-end) avg ~$107, 12-month ~$124.
PVC: East China SG-5 seen at 5,500-5,800 yuan/t, range-bound and weak.
