【Abstract】On July 8, 2026, international crude oil rebounded sharply, pushing the entire energy and chemical sector higher. Domestic commodity futures closed with crude oil and LU fuel up more than 6%, benzene up over 5%, styrene and methanol up over 4%, LPG and polypropylene up more than 3%. The morning session on July 9 continued the rally, with crude oil futures opening up over 5%.
1. Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical Risks Drive Price Rebound
On July 8, domestic commodity futures closed with crude oil main contracts surging over 6%, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions around the Strait of Hormuz following events on the evening of July 6. Market concerns about potential supply disruptions intensified, while US-Iran uncertainties further elevated risk premiums. On July 9 morning, crude oil futures extended gains, opening over 5% higher, with fuel oil and LU fuel rising in tandem.
Internationally, as of July 8 close, WTI crude oil futures traded around $70.44/barrel, while Brent crude oil futures settled around $74.16/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become the primary price driver in the short term.
2. Plastics Industry Chain: Cost Support Strengthens, Spot Market Rallies
Supported by the sharp oil price increase, plastics futures across the board closed higher. According to SCI Data, on July 8, plastic woven raw material prices continued their upward trend, with PP pellets, PP powder, and LLDPE film material prices rising by 0-150 CNY/ton.
In the polyethylene (PE) sector, macro support combined with cost-driven price increases lifted certain grades; polypropylene (PP) futures held at high levels, supporting trader sentiment with narrow price increases; PVC futures traded stronger, with spot prices following suit.
The China Plastics Price Index (daily) stood at 823.99 points, up 0.42% from the previous trading day, with market trading activity gradually warming and industry sentiment stabilizing.
3. Recycled Plastics: Rising Costs Sustain Firm Pricing
The SCI recycled plastics market report dated July 7 shows that driven by rising methanol feedstock prices, POM (polyoxymethylene) theoretical costs rose sharply from approximately 10,400 CNY/ton at the start of 2026 to approximately 11,700 CNY/ton, an increase exceeding 1,000 CNY/ton, the highest level in nearly three years.
Analysts note that while methanol feedstock rose more modestly during the early stages of geopolitical tensions, the rapid price surge in POM markets has been largely driven by macro sentiment and broader plastics sector speculation. As methanol prices remain elevated, actual cost pressures are mounting, and factory price increases appear inevitable, establishing a firm floor for POM pricing.
4. Outlook: Cost-Driven Rally with Demand Recovery, Near-Term Strength Expected
In the near term, geopolitical risks will continue to drive oil price volatility, providing strong cost support for the plastics industry chain. Market participants should closely monitor downstream restocking pace and international oil price movements. Plastics markets are expected to maintain a strong震荡 (range-bound with upside bias) pattern in the near term. Industry players are advised to track futures performance and end-demand changes closely.
(Source: SCI Data, Mysteel, Shengyishe, July 9, 2026)
