1. International Crude Oil Price Trends
As of June 30, 2026 closing, New York Mercantile Exchange August crude oil futures fell $1.25 to settle at $69.50/barrel, down 1.77%; London Brent crude oil August futures fell 23 cents to settle at $72.92/barrel, down 0.31%.
2. PVC Concept Stocks Surge
On July 1, PVC-related stocks surged, with Jianbang Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit up. Xinjindu, Hubei Yihua, Erdos, Zhongtai Chemical, Ruifeng Gaocai and others followed suit. Market analysis suggests that the optimization of PVC industry supply structure, combined with demand recovery expectations, drove the strength of related stocks.
3. Industry Recovery Signals
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of the national industrial producer price index (PPI) in May 2026 reached a 46-month high. The year-on-year growth rate of PPI for the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry also ended nearly three and a half years of negative growth, reaching 12.7%. Price recovery elasticity is emerging, indicating that industry prosperity is recovering from the low range and is expected to start a new round of upward cycles.
4. Plastic Raw Material Price Dynamics
According to SCI99 monitoring data:
- PVC: Average market price 4,855 yuan/ton (May 14 data), up 3.36% year-on-year
- PP Raffia: Price 9,556.67 yuan/ton, up 28.45% year-on-year
- PE: LLDPE price 8,466.67 yuan/ton, up 12.76% year-on-year
- ABS: Price 10,833.33 yuan/ton, up 1.25% year-on-year
5. Market Outlook
The optimization of supply structure is an important support for this round of prosperity recovery. With crude oil prices falling back, cost pressure on plastic raw materials has eased somewhat, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and the plastic industry is expected to welcome a phased recovery in Q3. It is recommended to focus on leading enterprises in PVC, PP and other segments.
Data sources: SCI99, National Bureau of Statistics, Tencent News
Published: July 1, 2026
