I. Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical Risks Drive Sustained Gains
As of May 12 closing: WTI June 2026 settled at $102.05/barrel (+4.06%); Brent July 2026 settled at $107.60/barrel (+3.38%). WTI has risen for four consecutive trading sessions. Monthly gain stands at 3.00%, with year-on-year surge of 60.28%.
Key Data
| Contract | Settlement | Change |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude Jun 2026 | $102.05/bbl | +4.06% |
| Brent Crude Jul 2026 | $107.60/bbl | +3.38% |
Market Drivers
- EIA Weekly: US commercial crude inventories fell 1.5M bbl vs. expected +1M bbl build
- OPEC+: Maintains current production cuts; Saudi Arabia reaffirms voluntary cuts through June
- Geopolitical: US-Iran nuclear talks stalled, Iran oil sanctions risk elevated
II. Impact on Downstream Plastic Raw Materials
Sustained high crude oil prices have strengthened cost-side support for plastic raw materials markets.
PVC Paste Resin
Ethylene-based feedstock costs running high. East China large plate mainstream: 6,700-6,800 yuan/ton. Downstream glove factory orders acceptable; large plate demand recovery slow.
TDI Market
Toluene diisocyanate supply stable, downstream polyurethane demand flat. East China Shanghai-origin TDI: 15,800-16,200 yuan/ton. Transactions dominated by small rigid orders.
Rigid Foam Polyether
Propylene oxide cost support generally flat. North China 4110 quoted at 9,900-10,500 yuan/ton. Overall market sentiment light.
III. Outlook
Short-term, geopolitical risk premiums remain elevated. Crude oil prices face upward rather than downward pressure. Downstream demand recovery still requires time. Some sub-sectors may continue in a range-bound pattern.
