I. Supply: Maintenance Declines, Output Expected to Rise
According to Sci99.com statistics, May domestic PE facility maintenance covers approximately 2.85 million tons of capacity, down about 15% from April. Average daily domestic output expected to reach approximately 48,000 tons, a QoQ increase of about 5.5%. Zhejiang Petrochemical new unit running smoothly; Zhenhai Refining new line load steadily increasing.
Key Data
| Item | Data | QoQ Change |
|---|---|---|
| May maintenance capacity | 2.85M tons | -15% vs Apr |
| PE daily domestic output | ~48,000 tons/day | +5.5% |
| May expected imports | 0.95-1.0M tons | Slight decrease |
Import Situation
Import window remains closed due to high overseas prices and weakening domestic prices. May PE import volume expected at 950,000-1,000,000 tons, slightly decreasing QoQ.
II. Demand: Downstream Restocking Enthusiasm Low
Downstream plastic product enterprise orders generally normal, maintaining rigid demand pace for raw material procurement.
- Agricultural film: Entering off-season, greenhouse film production basically ended
- Packaging film: Beverage and daily chemical orders stable but profit margins under pressure
- Inventory behavior: About 65% of sample enterprises report raw material inventory at normal-low levels, with weak restocking willingness due to bearish sentiment
III. Inventories and Price Trends
Petrochemical polyolefin inventories maintained at 780,000-820,000 tons, approximately 80,000 tons higher than same period last year.
East China Prices
| Grade | Quoted Price | WoW |
|---|---|---|
| LLDPE | 8,400-8,600 yuan/ton | -50 ~ -100 |
| LDPE | 8,700-8,900 yuan/ton | -50 ~ -100 |
| HDPE Drawing | 8,700-8,900 yuan/ton | -50 ~ -100 |
IV. Outlook
Short-term, PE market supply pressure unabated, off-season characteristics evident, bearish fundamentals continue. High crude oil costs may limit downside room. LLDPE main contract expected to range-bound consolidate at 8,300-8,600 yuan/ton. Watch downstream order changes and new capacity release pace.
