Crude Oil Rebounds from Selloff
On June 10, international crude oil prices rebounded from the previous session's sharp decline. At close, WTI crude for July delivery rose $1.83 to $90.03/barrel, up 2.07%; Brent crude for August delivery rose $1.65 to $93.10/barrel, up 1.80%. This followed a steep selloff on June 9 when WTI plunged 5% to $86.75/barrel and Brent fell 4.33% to $90.17/barrel.
Plastic Futures Diverge, Cost Support Fails to Pass Through
Despite the crude rebound, domestic plastic futures performed weakly on June 10 with mixed performance. LLDPE main contract closed at 7,875 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan or 0.63%, with an intraday high of 7,950 and low of 7,787, volume at 559,100 lots. PP futures fell more sharply, with the main contract closing at 8,649 yuan/ton, down 123 yuan or 1.40%. PVC main contract closed at 4,706 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan or 0.70%, volume at 935,700 lots.
Plastics Industry Index Declines
According to JLC data, the plastics industry index stood at 8,490 on June 10, down 19 points (-0.22%). Specifically: PE price index 9,184 (down 37), HDPE 8,882 (down 31), LDPE 10,032 (down 41), LLDPE 8,381 (down 43), PP 9,711 (down 6), PVC 4,729 (down 17), ABS 10,053 (down 35), PS 9,697 (up 7).
Upstream Raw Material Quotes
Propylene monomer CFR China at $1,118/ton (flat), FOB Korea at $1,093/ton (flat); ethylene monomer CFR Northeast Asia at $898/ton (down $30), CFR Southeast Asia at $948/ton (down $30); styrene Asia at $1,153/ton (down $40); butadiene CFR Taiwan at $1,515/ton (flat).
PE Spot-Futures Basis Widens
PE spot price was 8,310 yuan/ton vs main futures contract, with 180-day average basis rate at 1.73% and 90-day at 2.83%. PP spot at 9,657 yuan/ton vs main contract at 8,612 yuan/ton, basis rate at 10.04% — a relatively high level.
Market Outlook
Short term, while crude oil has rebounded, Middle East geopolitical risks and macroeconomic concerns are intertwined, increasing volatility. Plastic futures are constrained by weak downstream demand, with cost support failing to transmit to spot markets. LLDPE and PP widening basis shows spot resilience but futures face bearish positioning. PVC remains constrained by weak real estate demand. Monitor Middle East developments, OPEC+ policy, and domestic stimulus measures.
