International Crude Oil Surges, Strong Cost Support
On June 8, geopolitical tensions escalated again as the US-Israel joint military operation against Iran passed the 100-day mark, with Iran and Israel exchanging attacks. International crude oil surged during the session. At close, WTI crude for July delivery rose 76 cents to $91.30/barrel, up 0.84%; Brent crude for August delivery rose $1.16 to $94.25/barrel, up 1.25%.
LLDPE Leads Gains, Plastic Futures Rise Across the Board
Driven by crude oil cost support, domestic plastic futures rose across the board on June 8. LLDPE (polyethylene) main contract performed the strongest, closing at 8,146 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan or 3.01%, with an intraday high of 8,149 yuan/ton. PP (polypropylene) futures also showed strong performance, closing at 8,989 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan or 3.06%.
PVC futures were relatively stable, closing at 4,778 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.10%, with an intraday range of 4,719-4,802 yuan/ton, trading volume of 1.0307 million lots, and open interest of 1.1478 million lots.
Plastic Industry Index Declines Slightly
According to JLC data, the plastic industry index stood at 8,540 on June 8, down 39 points from the previous day. Specifically: PE price index 9,221 (down 32), HDPE price index 8,918 (down 10), LDPE price index 10,084 (down 85), LLDPE price index 8,394 (up 13), PP price index 9,706 (up 14), PVC price index 4,780 (down 28), ABS price index 10,053 (down 90), PS price index 10,667 (down 22).
PET Market Driven by Cost, Downstream Follow-through Weak
Both crude oil and polyester raw materials moved up during the day, and PET market prices rose significantly driven by costs. However, dragged down by weak downstream follow-through, the gains lagged behind the raw material side. Overall, under the game between cost and supply-demand, PET market prices may oscillate in the short term. Actual trends need to monitor subsequent geopolitical developments, unit changes, and actual demand conditions.
Upstream Raw Material Quotes
In the international market, propylene monomer CFR China was reported at $1,118/ton (down $9), FOB Korea at $1,093/ton (down $14); ethylene monomer CFR Northeast Asia at $898/ton (flat), CFR Southeast Asia at $948/ton (flat); styrene Asia at $1,178/ton (up $1); butadiene CFR Taiwan at $1,515/ton (down $80).
Market Outlook
In the short term, geopolitical risk premium persists, and high crude oil prices provide strong cost support for the plastic market. LLDPE and PP show positive performance on the futures side, but spot market follow-through needs observation. PVC is constrained by weak downstream demand and maintains a range-bound pattern in the short term. It is recommended to closely monitor the evolution of the Middle East situation and domestic unit maintenance dynamics.
