Global Crude Oil Market Review
On June 3, WTI crude futures settled at $93.76/bbl and Brent at $96.00/bbl, rising for two consecutive sessions. By the close of June 3, WTI climbed further to $96.02/bbl (+2.41%) and Brent to $97.81/bbl (+1.89%), as Middle East tensions continued to fuel safe-haven buying.
Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire and US-Iran Negotiation Hopes
On June 5, the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire agreement triggered a sharp market reaction. US President Trump suggested substantial progress in US-Iran diplomatic talks, significantly easing concerns about Middle East escalation. Some longs took profits, and international crude prices fell sharply on Thursday. Brent retreated from above $97 to the $93-94 range, with WTI declining in tandem.
China Fuel Price Cut
Effective June 4 at midnight, China cut gasoline prices by 525 yuan/ton and diesel by 505 yuan/ton, approximately 0.42 yuan/liter. The reduction reflects the declining trend in international oil prices during the previous pricing cycle. In the first working day of the new cycle, the three-region crude change rate stands at -1.46%, suggesting a further 70 yuan/ton cut. The next adjustment window opens on June 18.
Supply Tightness and Geopolitical Risk
Despite the ceasefire, US-Iran negotiation prospects remain uncertain. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company plans to build a pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring long-term concerns about shipping route risks. Global supply gaps persist, and the oil market maintains a high-volatility, wide-range consolidation pattern. Key resistance at $97-100, support at $90-88.
Implications for Plastics Industry
High crude oil volatility directly raises upstream costs for naphtha and ethylene. While the short-term pullback offers breathing room, the medium-term trend of rising cost centers remains intact. Downstream plastics processors should monitor procurement timing and consider moderate restocking during price dips.
