WTI Rebounds to $93.76 as US-Iran Hormuz Strait Divide Deepens, Oil in High-Level Tug-of-War
Market Daily Report — June 3, 2026
On June 2, international crude oil futures closed higher. WTI July contract rose $1.60 to $93.76/bbl (+1.74%); Brent August contract rose $1.02 to $96.00/bbl (+1.07%). China's SC crude futures 2607 gained 21.3 RMB/bbl to 606.1 RMB/bbl.
US-Iran Hormuz Strait Divide Persists, Oil Volatility Widens
Negotiations between the US and Iran on reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain deadlocked. Broker XS.com's Samer Hasn stated: "The longer it takes to make progress, the tighter the spot market becomes." This expectation drove both WTI and Brent higher.
In late May, positive signals from US-Iran talks briefly pushed WTI below $90. However, Iran's Supreme Leader ordered that near-weapons-grade enriched uranium must not be shipped abroad, and significant differences remain over uranium stockpile management and strait control. Geopolitical risk premiums are being repeatedly priced in, creating wide high-level oscillation.
OPEC+ plans to discuss a July production increase of 188,000 bpd at its June 7 meeting. The UAE noted that even if tensions ease, Hormuz Strait oil shipments are unlikely to fully recover before H1 2027.
Rigid Polyether Foam: Sharp Decline, Stabilization Expected
On June 2, China's rigid polyether foam market declined. North China 4110 grade: 8,200-9,200 RMB/ton (-350); East China: 8,300-9,300 RMB/ton (-300). Raw material propylene oxide weakened, undermining cost support. However, 40% of market participants expect a slight rebound today, 50% foresee stabilization.
TDI: Nationwide Drop of 350 RMB/ton, Decline Pace Slowing
TDI prices continued falling on June 2. Domestic TDI80/20 in East/South/North China uniformly at 14,500-14,600 RMB/ton (-350); Shanghai-sourced at 14,700-14,900 RMB/ton (-300). Supply tightening signals strengthening: Shanghai Plant 1 shut May 20 for maintenance, Hanwha to shut in early June, Xinjiang also planning maintenance. Expected decline narrows to ~100 RMB/ton today.
Bisphenol A: Broad Decline, Cost vs Demand Tug-of-War
BPA East China: 8,600-8,700 RMB/ton (-250); North China: 8,500-8,600 RMB/ton (-350). Ample supply plus weak demand; 70% of participants expect further decline of ~100 RMB/ton. However, raw material phenol shows upward pressure, intensifying cost squeeze.
Outlook
Crude oil oscillates in the $90-95 range with反复 geopolitical premium repricing as the core feature. TDI, rigid polyether, and BPA are in a post-decline stabilization phase, with supply contraction expectations potentially limiting downside. Monitor US-Iran negotiations, OPEC+ meeting, and Chinese SC futures trajectory.
