1. International Crude Oil Market
On June 23, international crude oil prices dropped sharply. WTI July futures fell $1.82/bbl to settle at $74.03/bbl, down 2.4%. Brent August futures declined $2.39/bbl to $77.66/bbl, down 2.98%. The continued de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remains the primary driver, significantly reducing supply disruption concerns.
2. China Futures Market
Polypropylene (PP): PP futures tumbled, with the most-active contract closing at 7,388 CNY/ton, down 103 CNY/ton (-1.38%). Intraday low reached 7,352 CNY/ton with open interest adding 10,900 lots. Homopolymer PP spot prices continued to decline, with cumulative weekly losses exceeding 3%.
Polyethylene (PE): The PE market extended its downtrend. HDPE prices plunged approximately 800 CNY/ton over the week — the steepest decline among major plastics. LLDPE futures settled at 7,160 CNY/ton, down 46 CNY/ton. Oversupply coupled with weak demand has pushed the market into a deep correction cycle.
PVC: PVC futures V2609 plunged on heavy volume, closing at 4,444 CNY/ton, down 119 CNY/ton (-2.61%). Intraday low touched 4,439 CNY/ton. Open interest surged 53,500 lots to 1.3895 million lots. The top-20 traders held a net short position of 30,000 lots. Guotai Junan Futures maintained the largest short position at approximately 78,500 lots net short, with bears continuing to build positions.
3. Spot Market Dynamics
According to JLC (Jin Lian Chuang), the plastics composite index stood at 8,131 points, down 128 points. PE price index at 8,655 (-184), PP price index at 9,182 (-214), PVC price index at 4,657 (-17), ABS at 9,873 (-77), PS at 10,199 (-122). Styrene monomer in Asia quoted at $1,046/ton. Butadiene CFR Taiwan at $1,265/ton, down $170/ton.
4. Market Outlook
In the near term, sustained geopolitical de-escalation combined with sluggish downstream demand is expected to keep plastics markets under pressure. Market participants should monitor OPEC+ production policy dynamics and China macro policy implementation. Watch for potential oversold bounces.
