[Market Overview]
On the last trading day of June 2026, the plastics market continued its weak performance. As US-Iran tensions eased and the US temporarily waived sanctions on Iranian oil, international crude prices plunged sharply, with WTI falling below the key $70/barrel psychological level for the first time since early March, when the Iran conflict erupted. Cost support eroded while downstream demand remained sluggish, pressuring the entire petrochemical chain.
1. Crude Oil: WTI Breaks Below $70/bbl
As of June 29 close, NYMEX WTI crude oil front-month contract settled at $69.54/barrel, recovering slightly intraday but down more than 4% for the week. ICE Brent settled at $71.90/barrel. On June 23, following news that US-Iran negotiations had made progress and the US temporarily lifted oil sanctions on Iran, WTI crashed 3.21% to $74.08/barrel. On June 25, WTI broke below $70/barrel entirely, its lowest since February 27 — one day before the Iran-US conflict erupted.
The market narrative this month centers on the US-Iran ceasefire: both sides signed a memorandum of understanding, and expectations for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have grown, rapidly unwinding geopolitical risk premiums and pushing oil prices lower consecutively.
2. PVC Market: Spot Falls to 4,294 Yuan/MT
Weakened by lower feedstock costs, domestic PVC spot prices continued their slide. According to data from Baikesi (100ppi.com), PVC spot prices stood at 4,294 yuan/MT on June 29, down more than 15% from the beginning of the month. PVC futures main contract settled at 4,382 yuan/MT, down 1.08%. Major consuming regions like Linyi and Zibo saw calcium carbide-based PVC Type 5 quoted at 4,350–4,400 yuan/MT. Fundamentals remain weak, with plant inventory pressures persisting and downstream buying driven by rigid demand.
3. PE/PP Markets: Cost and Demand Both Weak
For polyethylene (PE), Lonzone data showed cold trading in the Asian PE spot market, with LLDPE/LDPE price benchmarks declining steadily. Cost-side support is waning while end-demand remains tepid; short-term PE is expected to range narrowly. For polypropylene (PP), market sentiment shifted from firm to soft this week, with prices consolidating at elevated levels. High raw material prices have negatively feedback on downstream purchasing. South China PP raffia is quoted at 8,800–8,900 yuan/MT. Short-term PP is expected to remain range-bound.
4. Outlook
In the near term, US-Iran negotiations remain the core driver for crude markets — if talks continue to advance, oil may extend its decline, further eroding plastics cost support. On the demand side, home appliances and automotive sectors have entered their traditional off-season, compounded by macro headwinds, leaving demand outlook muted. Plastics markets are expected to remain弱势 in the near term; monitor policy signals in early July.
Sources: SCI99 (Zhuochuang), Lonzone, Baikesi, CNGold, OilPriceNews
